貝淡寧，汪沛：艱難抗疫帶給中國新的可能

2020-03-06 17:34

來源：澎湃新聞·澎湃號·湃客

?Editor's Note:

在此全民抗疫的特殊時期，我們特別開設了一檔全新欄目——PUP Advisor 話新冠，為書友們分享來自普林斯頓大學出版社“中國學術顧問理事會”成員針對此次新冠肺炎疫情的觀點。

本次第三期分享將帶來的是國際知名哲學家、社會學家貝淡寧（Daniel A. Bell）教授最新發表于《環球時報》的言論文章《貝淡寧、汪沛：疫情之下中國社會涌現新生機》（中文版），以及同步發表于《南華早報》South China Morning Post 的英文版 Coronavirus holds up a mirror to China’s problems, and the nation will be the better for it。

伴隨中國在世界學術與思想領域持續崛起的影響力，自2015年起，普林斯頓大學出版社開始籌備并組建了由林毅夫、施一公、閻學通、姚期智、薛瀾、汪暉、貝淡寧、劉禾、鄭永年、謝宇、朱強、顏海平、Martin Kern 這十三位領軍學者思想家組成的“中國學術顧問理事會”。該理事會為PUP在中國的發展提出戰略性建議，并協助PUP把中國頂級學術成果推向世界。

本文作者為山東大學政治學與公共管理學院和復旦大學中國研究院助理研究員汪沛，經作者授權發布。

中文原文2月19日刊發于《環球時報》，英文原文2月21日刊發于 South China Morning Post

兩位作者合著的新作 Just Hierarchy: Why Social Hierarchies Matter in China and the Rest of the World 已于近期由普林斯頓大學出版社出版。

中文版全文

最近，中國社會深受新冠肺炎疫情侵擾。確診病例與死亡病例已經大大超過17年前的SARS，學校推遲開學，一些單位、企業推遲上班、開工，城市難以看到之前車水馬龍的正常生活。但是中國人自古以來相信否極泰來，再艱難的狀況中都孕育著新的可能。

首先，對于信息的審核和審查有可能將更加科學。這次疫情中，李文亮醫生不幸去世引發輿論關注。如果業內人士和專家有在專業范圍內自由討論的權利，那么更多的專家可以在第一時間了解并且參與研究，或許疫情所造成的損失會遠小于現在。政府本身也可以從中受益。就目前而言，專業部門如果能夠即時地對相關地區發布預警信號，那么無論地方政府還是民眾，對于即將到來的風險會有更好的準備。一旦有這種機制，即便出現問題，責任也會更加分散。另一方面，政府也可以聽取專家意見著手解決問題，使得決策機制更加迅速、扁平化。對于專業而有效的信息，我們需要更為高效和科學的處理模式，應更多鼓勵行業內專家之間的討論和交流，更多地支持我們的專業人士和專業部門，尊重事實、實事求是，在可預見的災害到來之前盡力做好最困難的準備。

其次，在這次疫情中人們的工作方式也有所改變。上海醫療救治組專家張文宏呼吁：“現在每個人都是‘戰士’，你在家里不是隔離，是在戰斗!你覺得很悶嗎？病毒也要被你‘悶死’了，‘悶’兩個禮拜。”很多人已經自覺響應這一呼吁，在家中開始了工作。在北上廣這種超大規模城市，平均每次往返通勤時間大約兩個小時左右。對很多經常堵車和擠地鐵的上班族來說，在家辦公可以免于這種折磨。政府一直呼吁減少官僚主義和形式主義，所以一些東西確實該變變了。眼下，絕大多數會議都在網上進行，時間大為縮短，文書工作減少，需要填的表格也更少。一旦疫情結束，一切歸于正常，具有效率的新習慣應繼續保持下去。

第三，商界對高科技的需求將越來越大。最近和無人機有關的各種視頻都成了網紅爆款。許多城市和農村的上空有掛著喇叭的無人機飛旋，用各種地方方言花式勸告。在重慶巴南，配備消毒藥劑的工業級無人機，在人員操作下對重點防疫區域展開空中噴灑消毒作業。除此之外，還有更多對于智能機器的需求。在這次抗擊疫情的戰斗之中，許多醫生、護士和家庭成員因為照顧病人而受到感染，還有司機、外賣員和快遞員也都曝露在高風險的工作環境里。將來，智能護理機器人可以幫助照顧病人和年邁的老人;能夠自動消毒的無人駕駛汽車可以將患者送往醫院;機器人可以將食品外賣和快遞運送給人們。可以想見，無論是政府還是私人企業都會致力于這場智能革新，未來也將有大量相應的新工作出現。

第四，疫情也推動了線上教學的普及。在山東大學和復旦大學，老師即將在春季學期通過直播和錄制的視頻在線授課。對于老師們，尤其是并不特別擅長視頻操作的老師來說，這樣的調整非常痛苦，因為他們在一開始需要做更多的準備工作，但大家知道這些變化是必要的。一旦教師適應了這些變化，在線教學的實踐將變得更加普遍。好處顯而易見，疾病傳播的風險將大幅度降低。學生和老師也不用花費時間往返于家校，而有更多學習和閱讀的時間。并不是說在線教育將取代實時教學，但我們可以大致預測，更具創新性的教學方法將得到更廣泛的普及。

這還有其他益處。當今中國面臨的最大挑戰之一是減少中國貧富地區之間的教育不平等，來自偏遠地區的學生常常缺乏良好的教育資源和教學設施。隨著網絡在城市和農村的普及，在線教學成為可能。絕大多數學生，無論班級背景如何，都可從優秀教師授課中受益。眼下老師的負擔或許是最重的，將來我們希望人工智能可以幫助回答學生的疑問，從而減輕老師的負擔。

同時，對于宅在家里的人來說，也可以成為一次學習的好機會。國內視頻彈幕網站Bilibili匯總了北大、清華、復旦等多個大學人文社科公開課，其中也包括一些非常專精的課程，還有一些和大眾文化緊密相關的課程。網友們在課程中的大量彈幕里相互交流，形成了臨時的學習共同體。在這不得不宅在家中“戰斗”的日子里，看公開課、發彈幕成為了很多人積極面對生活的一種方式。

第五，今年春節假期里，人們不得不和家里人從早到晚面對面共同生活，這也改變了很多人的人生。有些憤世嫉俗的人預測，疫情過后離婚率將大大提高;有些樂觀的人預測，疫情過后的九個月出生率將大幅上揚。無論如何，在疾病面前，對死亡的恐懼使人們更多地思考生活中真正重要的事情。我們對瑣碎的事情不那么在意了，因為更清楚什么是重要的，例如好好活著并與親人一起度過這段時光。

疫情之下還有助于培養社區精神。過去，中國大城市的居民哪怕門對門也基本是陌生人。但是，情況正在悄悄發生轉變。在遭受重創的武漢，志愿者為獨居的老人帶來食物和必需品，還有熱心的朋友幫助喂養主人不在家中的寵物。同在一個社區，鄰里之間的關系本來就應該充滿了真實的互動和情感的共鳴，互幫互助、相互鼓勵使得人們之間的距離更近。在疫情過去之后，良性互動的社區精神也將是寶貴的社區財富。

第六，國際社會對中國的支持，將有助于鞏固中國與其他國家的關系。春節期間，那些成行的中國游客會感謝泰國和柬埔寨等尚未對中國游客關閉邊境的國家。日本援助中國的物資上寫著“山川異域、風月同天”，一時之間引起網絡熱議。很多西方國家政府和民眾都向中國和其他受新冠病毒感染的國家伸出了援手，這些努力克服了過度自私的民族主義，并為今后開展更多的國際合作奠定了基礎。

疫情肆虐造成了悲劇，成千上萬的家庭深受其擾，尤其那些因此失去親人的家庭。但是災難也使我們團結了起來，相信在民眾、政府和世界友人們的共同努力下，我們最終會戰勝疫情。在災難結束之后，我們在與病毒斗爭的過程中積累的有益經驗也將保留下來。

英文版全文

Here in China, it is hard to be optimistic. Hundreds of people are dying from a new and scary virus, schools are closed and workplaces are largely deserted. It is China’s worst crisis in decades. We pray for the resumption of “normal” life as soon as possible.

But the Book of Changes – China’s foundational text for both Confucianism and Taoism – reminds us that the most difficult circumstances also give rise to positive changes.

Positive trends are already under way. We must resist wishful thinking, but there are good reasons to think that long-wished-for changes can be consolidated after the crisis blows over. The most obvious trend is the demand for more freedom of speech.

The case of Dr Li Wenliang has generated widespread outrage on social media. In late December, Li alerted colleagues to the new virus, mainly doctors at high risk of infection, only to be warned by local authorities not to spread rumours. Later, he succumbed to the same virus and died.

Chinese dissidents have long called for more freedom of speech.

Journalists and artists have felt frustrated by increasing constraints on their work. In academic disciplines such as political science, the space to publish academic works in Chinese has been shrinking. But the rest of society did not seem to notice increased censorship.

However, Li’s fate has galvanised public opinion in a new and forceful way. There will be strong and almost overwhelming social pressure for more freedom of speech in the future. The government needs to adapt: at the very least, it will think twice before censoring experts who disseminate their research and express worries to their colleagues.

Why should the government respond to such calls? The government itself can benefit from more freedom of speech. As it stands, political leaders are blamed for everything that goes wrong in China because only “officially” approved views are expressed. With more openness, the responsibility will be more diffuse and the government can help to fix things and deal with them efficiently before they explode.

The second positive trend is forceful recognition of the need for less bureaucracy and formalism. In recent years, China’s public officials have become ultracautious, largely due to the anti-corruption campaign. The campaign has reduced corruption in government. But the means employed – harsh punishment for hundreds of thousands of officials – created an environment where public officials are afraid to act. It is safer to keep one’s head down than to risk getting it chopped off.

At the start of the outbreak, local authorities in Wuhan failed to disclose information in a timely manner, delaying measures that could have contained the epidemic. Wuhan mayor Zhou Xianwang blamed legal restrictions imposed by central authorities: “As a local government, we may disclose that information only after we are given permission to do so.”

The delay is likely to have cost hundreds of people their lives. If the corrupt official was the bane of the Chinese public before the anti-corruption campaign, today – as a direct response of the Wuhan crisis – it is the do-nothing official who blindly sticks to the rules and cares for nothing more than pleasing the higher-ups.

Clearly, there is a need to wind down the anti-corruption campaign, and to emphasise moral self-regulation rather than fear of punishment. The anti-corruption drive had, indeed, been winding down in the past year or so. But recent events have exposed the problem for all to see, speeding up the demand for change. Talented local officials should be encouraged to innovate and experiment rather than err on the side of ultraconservatism.

In universities, there will be strong pressure to reduce bureaucracy and formalism. The obsession with lengthy meetings is a source of aggravation for many academics. There is a trade-off between meetings designed to ensure consensual decision-making and the need for efficiency, with a clear need to rebalance towards the latter.

Officially, the government calls for less bureaucracy and less formalism. But such words have had little effect till now. The joke is that documents calling for less formalism only serve to create more formalism. Things are finally changing. In universities, meetings are now online, there is less paperwork, and the meetings take less time.

We can hear calls of relief at our own universities, and we have good reason to think habits of efficiency will be maintained after the medical scare is over.

The most important positive change, perhaps, is increased recognition of the need to fix problems at home rather than scapegoat outsiders. Before the epidemic, it was easy to blame outsiders for China’s problems. The Trump administration’s hostility to China played into the hands of ultranationalists at home.

Notwithstanding the circulation of some conspiracy theories, it is obvious that the current crisis is largely home-made. Since the public health crisis, excessive nationalism has been curbed in China.

International support for China’s plight helps to cement ties with other countries. China is grateful to countries such as Thailand and Cambodia that have not closed their borders to Chinese visitors. Even less-than-friendly countries have been helping.

Japan sent deliveries of masks to China, accompanied by a moving poem that expresses the idea that China and Japan share the same “gentle breeze and bright moonlight”. Canada has won praise for sending medical equipment and not closing its doors to Chinese passport holders.

Of course, it is always possible that embattled leaders will launch a war to distract attention from problems at home. But they are no longer guaranteed the people’s support. More likely, leaders will recognise the need for more international cooperation to tackle global challenges such as climate change, the regulation of nuclear weapons, and, of course, global pandemics.

The coronavirus epidemic is a tragedy, not least for the lives lost. We – the people, the government, the whole world – should do our best to end the crisis as soon as possible. But with the bad has also come some good.